report / Ahmet Gündüz
DON’T FORGET PREACTİON
Sworn Financial Advisor Ahmet Gündüz said in our interview last year; “During this period, neither companies nor individuals should make unnecessary expenses. Act according to your income and financial situation. If inflation is not reined in the coming years, both Cost increases for both companies and our citizens will continue.For this reason, 2023 is a year in which caution should be taken. “for a year” He warned the business world and the public with his words. What happened confirmed him and his findings. Daytime with himselfIn our new interview, we urge institutions and individuals to be cautious. In our new interview, we urge institutions and individuals to be cautious. and warned them to maintain moderation.
SWORN CPA, Independent Auditor, Pendik Patent Deputy Ahmet Gündüz is one of the intellectual names of our region. Someone Primarily the economy We frequently consult his opinions to interpret the Turkish and world agenda. Social, political and economicconstantly monitors and evaluates developments Gündüz, his professional knowledge When you include it in the work; close What kind of developments in the future? at the point where it could becan make accurate predictions. In the interviews we had with him in the past periods; accuratereviews, warnings and also come up with solution suggestionshas put. In this sense, Ahmet Gündüz following his comment sand taking into account their predictions Many tradesmen and business people and the investor is alsowe know.Turkey is going through a critical phase again and there ismany different discourses, uncertainty environment available. At this point, as an expert We hope his views will be of interest to our readersand updating our questions we direct.
What’s happening in the economy? Why is this happening? of this workWhere will it end? Transfers your predictionsare you?
As I mentioned in our evaluation in January last year, from 2023 recommend being frugal From a new world I told you it was entering a period. Starting in China in 2020 and affects the whole world The Covid-19 epidemic has greatly affected the world economy. Epidemic due 2020 and 2021 in many sectors during the years Production stopped. That’s why after the pandemic, mainly Europe and America Disruptions and challenges in supply chains, including formed.
The world economy, which will open as of early 2022,in 2022 and 2023 to reach its old speed again.was also forced. This situation is both in our country and in the world caused worldwide inflation. Impact of exchange rates Inflation is very high in our country with
It felt harsh. Our country has no supply chain Time did not stop. This is definitely a great decision. That’s why the pandemic in our countryeffects on production to other countrieshas been less than We are in the last days of 2022; “In 2023, everyone should spend according to their budget”we said. Unfortunately it is happened. Both economically and our country politically He went through a difficult time. Still The process continues.
Minister after the Presidential Election Many in the staff change has occurred. This What was the impact of the change on the country’s economy?
The presidential election was renewed. Many of our ministers have changed. This created confidence in the country’s economy. However, staff changes especially the economy; Radical changes in terms of justice, education and security brought. The country’s economy is newa Finance Minister and the Center met the president. Mehmet Şimşek generally provided confidence in the markets. Centre young man for the presidency of the bank A president was appointed. Ministers Considering the change of the board, it is generally accepted from the citizens received positive marks. In terms of our economy When we consider, Finance The Ministry made important changes in taxes. the year 2023 and It was decided to implement Inflation Accounting for 2024 was given. In this way, businesses Shrinking assets on their balance sheets will be brought to current figures. Our Minister of Justice is our district A person loved by Yılmaz Tunç was chosen. He is also about accelerating justice.their work is welcomed Of course, our country has a NEW need to make a CONSTITUTION has. Say this at every opportunity We bring. general in 2023 to the course of the economy as positive direction of the council of ministers they tried to give. Ministry of Finance in 2024 He announced that he would implement a tight monetary policy. This situation government expensesIt will be a year of decreasing signal. To prevent a currency crunch from triggering a recession, A balanced monetary policy should be implemented. balanced moneypolicy not implemented contraction in the economy in case of There is a risk of it happening.
The worldwide economic crisis affecting Turkeyreflection is more intenseas if it happened. Dollar EuroWhat are your expectations?
Economic fluctuations in the world are generally caused by war and epidemics. In cases such as illnessis formed. in 2019 The world with the pandemic that started economy has also affected our country’s economy. World inflationary economy rises in exchange ratesin our country with the influence ofwas felt strongly. formed around the world 1% increase due to exchange rate effect It was felt as a 30-fold increase on a TL basis. Because the input costs of most production in our country depend on abroad. This Therefore, foreign price increases It triggered the increase in production costs in our country.
Affected production costs Conducted in 2022 – 2023 minimum wage increases, electricity When prices and fuel increases are added, inflation in our country suddenly increased.
Thus, prices in our country With an increase of over 100%, We returned to the years of high inflation. Therefore, in 2023, our economyhas been seriously affected. Nevertheless, the Government’s Exchange Rate Protected Deposit application, transition to a fixed exchange rate system However, by taking measures such as Efforts were made to stop the increase in inflation. Economically in 2024 Our expectations are that there is high inflation and A year of struggle It will happen. 2024 as a country We must continue to fight inflation in 2018. Opposite Otherwise, like in the 90s It is inevitable that periods of high inflation will be prolonged. In the coming years, input costs will stop increasing, rising exchange ratespolicies that will preventits development should continue. We expect foreign exchange at the end of 2024. exchange rate around 39.50 TL, Euro The exchange rate is around 43.25 TL We expect it might happen. To us According to the most popular in 2024 The investment tool will still be gold.
Individual / Business organization –crisis on a company scaleHow to take a position against it. What are your suggestions?
How we enter 2023Our advice to companies and individuals for a few years starting from 2024 is;
a) We recommend that they be careful about their expenses.
b) Foreign currency based investments They should stay away.
c) They should take measures to reduce their expenses.
d) Instead of doing more work, do less work. Let them do value-added work.
e) Quality work, added value Let them aim to do high things.
f) They should take measures to satisfy their existing customers.
g) Investing in risky new projects
They should avoid doing it.
Individuals should not make unnecessary expenses, 2024 Our citizens must spend frugally within their budget Let them help. If inflation is not reined in 2024, both Cost increases for both companies and our citizens will continue. 2024 in the world and in our country and the next two or three years of stagnationit could be. Therefore, the year 2024 It is a time when we need to be more cautious than in previous years. The credit support provided by our government to businesses, There is employment support. However, in 2024 and beyond two or three years in the banking and finance sector in our country. We are waiting for reality. Monetary Congestion will continue stagnation in our economy. Exchange rate protected accounts as of 31.12.2023 cannot be opened, foreign currency causing an increase in demand for It will happen. High interest rate now rates balance the exchange rate increase It does. But 2024 foreign currency as of April We predict that transitions will accelerate. Therefore the business Owners definitely pay in foreign currency They should not get into debt. Raw materials rather than investing in foreign currency Let them take it.
The stock market will continue to remain stable in 2024.Our citizens invest They should not invest in the stock market in 2024, they should not put all their eggs in the same basket. It is wrong to put . A few investment option together Let them evaluate.
Existing economictable on Turkey scalewhen we evaluatetrying to be implemented for the “way out”How do you evaluate the policies?
Mr. Metin, we have many meetings with you.We did an interview. in allI offered concrete suggestions. Our government has high taxescollecting taxes with rates It must come out of logic once. There are those who do not even pay the 2.5% tax to God, which is the duty of Muslims. we low tax systems that are proportional and indexed to the income of our citizens We have to establish it. The first thing to do is TAX It is REFORM. Tax Reform to increase taxes not, reduce, logical and tolerable (payable) tax is to put Our first suggestion is income tax and same corporate tax rate We have to do. In both The rate should not exceed 20%.progressive tax system We must remove it. can’t handle it Even if we are, the first slice of income tax is We should set it as 5 million TL for 2024. Thus We reduce the tax pressure on employees and tradesmen. Thus We reduce the tax pressure on employees and tradesmen. new again Anyone who employs personnel 6 months staff salary to the companyand we must cover the SSI premium support from the unemployment fund Minimum wage for retirees We must pay as much salary. Social Uniform security and 4a, 4 band we must completely remove the 4c distinction. Employees’ seniority We must receive the compensation into the retirement fund account. This Fondant But when you retire or We must ensure that it is paid in cases such as marriage or buying a house. We must reduce the VAT rate to 1%. If this is not possible, reduce it to 5% and use the discount mechanism. We must remove it. Equity ratios of the banking and finance sector We must increase it in economy. To overcome stagnation a strong financial system The need is always there. We must reduce financing rates in our country. to 50% Deposit Interest based on and Loan interest based on 65% rates do not improve our economy. On the contrary, production stopping and stagnation causes it to deepen. Policies that can urgently reduce interest rates to 10-15% We must develop.
In your opinion, the ‘New world order’With the concept of “New Hundred Years”the ongoing crises– wars, conflicts have a connection? Where is the world goingOr what does it evolve into?
The world has entered a new era. Polarization has accelerated. As you know, opposite poles repel each other. With the war between Russia and UkraineIsrael’s occupation of Gaza is verymeaningful. America and Europe, between Russia and Ukraine failure to globalize war, It created the need to create a new chaos. If this chaosAmerica’s support for Israel and its attack on Palestine came into being with. This is the most important event of the coming 2024. risk of world war threeis likely to come out. This We must all be prepared. You shouldn’t ignore things that you think won’t affect you. the problem by saying It would be foolish not to see it. OneOne day, that snake will bite you too. That’s why America’s Iranplan to draw into warthere is. This plan is only with Iran. not limited, next targetTurkey. knowing it like thisrequired. Therefore, Russia, China,Iran and Turkey on one frontthinking America, first of all Weakening the front by making Russia fight with Ukraineaims. He achieved his goal. Now, with Israel’s occupation of Palestine, the third world war prepared the environment. After that He wants to move forward by including Iran and Turkey America also wants to engages in activities that may adversely affect our relations with Greece and creating a separate divide between us create a fighting position wants. We shouldn’t fall for this game. 100 years ago how did we 4 Europe that makes war on the front, do the same today wants. The efficiency of our economy Decreasing, large amount of Natural Gas and these days when oil reserves are discovered, the most important danger xenophobia by feeding us with someone people fighting. This looks like a game. As a nation, we should not fall into this trap. Our Ancestors 100 experienced this scenario years ago. Let’s not repeat the same movie. Europe lovers ‘New Face’ He uses the slogan ‘Year’. Well “The world map again a hundred years to be shaped” as ” they say. We use this term instead of ‘Turkey Hundred Years’ or the term ‘Turkey’s Second Century’ We should use it. Your slogansIt has deep meanings. This is us Let’s not lose our consciousness.
Cost of Living instability, post-election how reflected?
We have a local government election ahead of us. Council We will elect our presidents, headmen, provincial and district administrative councils. Up to the presentelectoral economy applied I did not find an application. Of course, by regionit could be. Next 3-4 month mayor during the period clear projects of the candidates to present to citizensI recommend. Citizen’s transportation, Developing projects on cleaning and employment I recommend. global droughthas become an important phenomenon. global climate changeto research their effects on their regions and to present concrete suggestions to the citizens regarding this issue.
On the one hand, there is unemployment,on the one hand, companies can’t find staff. This what a contradiction comments are you?
We all our children We focused on completing university. Unfortunately this is wronghappened. We have made vocational high schools worthless. with everyestablishing a university, everyone having a university degree It is not the right policy. Job The subject of high school is our most important It is our matter. We need to update the apprenticeship legislation again. University entrance exam We should limit it to 3 rights. This those who fail in their rights They should definitely be started directly in business life. Otherwise, search Staff shortage is coming It will be felt more in the years to come. Lots of universities has a graduate; We do not like unskilled, inexperienced jobs. Come We say start working for 20 thousand TL. I am graduate of university. They say they want 30-35 thousand TL. There is both a lack of knowledge anda high salary expectation There is an unemployed group. Our recommendation employing new staff 6 months staff for each company We must cover his salary and SSI premium support from the unemployment fund. Thus, working Those who want to start their livesand supporting companies, employ these friends we should encourage
Do you have a political opinion?
I have no interest in serving my country.
I did not miss the period. Need If so, we take responsibility we insert it. We always support our government with our professional ideas. We will continue to be. However, for now, with my professional activities, seminars and conferences,
I can reach out to my colleagues, I support our community. My aim is that our country’s ‘TAX,’IN EDUCATION, IN JUSTICE’ is to make reforms as soon as possible. Our country in this geography a peaceful, prosperous life It is a country in exile. Thank you for giving me this opportunity